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2nd Baltic Earth Conference
The Baltic Sea Region in Transition
Helsingor, Denmark
11 - 15 June 2018

BACC II


 

Baltic Earth Working Group on Scenario Simulations for the Baltic Sea 1960-2100


Background and Tasks

The Working Group aims to publish a peer-reviewed paper in an international journal assessing existing scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea coupled physical-biogeochemical-carbonate system. The broader scientific community also of other marginal seas will be addressed. The assessment will include material that is available now and analyze the data as one large ensemble of scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The paper will address different sources of uncertainties, how to deal with them and how to take advantage of the ensemble approach and the variety among the individual members.

Also, a discussion on simulated key processes like e.g. hypoxia and the complexity of the problem will be included. The publication will advertise future coordinated scenario simulations to generate ensembles of comparable members and argue that climate change needs to be taken into account in revised BSAP calculations.

Duration: 2013-2015


News and Events

  • 22-24 November 2016, Leibnitz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde, Germany
    Working Group meeting on Scenario Simulations
    The working group meeting will produce a manuscript assessing existing scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea coupled physical-biogeochemical-carbonate system. The broader scientific community also of other marginal seas will be addressed. The assessment will include material that is available now and analyze the data as one large ensemble of scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The study will address different sources of uncertainties, how to deal with them and how to take advantage of the ensemble approach and the variety among the individual members. Also, a discussion on simulated key processes like e.g. hypoxia and the complexity of the problem will be included. The study will advertise future coordinated scenario simulations to generate ensembles of comparable members and argue that climate change needs to be taken into account in revised BSAP calculations.

  • WG Meeting of 6 March 2014 in Norrköping
    All presentations which are listed below can be found here
    • Meeting Minutes
    • Baltic Earth Working Group meeting on Scenario Simulations (Markus Meier)
    • BALTSEM-C – recent development of the BALTSEM model (Erik Gustafsson)
    • Simulation of a nutrient reduction scenario using ERGOM (Rene Friedland)
    • CC Scenario Simulations with ERGOM (Thomas Neumann)
    • Do we need better models? (Kari Eilola)
    • Scenarios developed in the Baltic-C program (Anders Omstedt)
    • What happened outside the Baltic Sea ? The next neighbor is the North Sea with strong exchange with the open Atlantic (Matthias Gröger)
    • Calculation of maximum allowable inputs and country-wise nutrient load reduction targets for the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan revision 2013 (Erik Gustafsson)
    • Biogeochemical fluxes in scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea in the period 1960-2100 with Saint-Petersburg Baltic Eutrophication Model (SPBEM) (Vladimir Ryabchenko)

 


Members of the Working Group on Scenario Simulations
(as of February 2015)

1) Markus Meier (Chair), SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, markus.meier(at)smhi.se
2) Elin Almroth-Rosell, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, elin.almroth.rosell(at)smhi.se
3) Helen Andersson, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, helen.andersson(at)smhi.se
4) Christian Dieterich, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, christian.dieterich(at)smhi.se
5) Moa Edman, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, moa.edman(at)smhi.se
6) Kari Eilola, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, christian.dieterich(at)smhi.se
7) Rene Friedland, IOW, Warnemünde, Germany, rene.friedland(at)io-warnemuende.de
8) Bo Gustafsson, Stockholm University, Sweden, bo.gustafsson(at)su.se
9) Erik Gustafsson, Stockholm University, Sweden, erik.gustafsson(at)su.se
10) Matthias Gröger, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, matthias.groger(at)smhi.se
11) Ivan Kuznetsov, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, ivan.kuznetsov(at)smhi.se
12) Ye Liu, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, ye.liu(at)smhi.se
13) Thomas Neumann, IOW, Warnemünde, Germany, thomas.neumann(at)io-warnemuende.de
14) Anders Omstedt, Göteborg University, Sweden, anders.omstedt(at)marine.gu.se
15) Vladimir Ryabchenko, RSHU, Russia, vladimir_ryabchenko(at)VR5841.spb.edu
16) Oleg Savchuk, Stockholm University, Sweden, oleg.savchuk(at)su.se
17) Semjon Schimanke, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, Semjon.schimanke(at)smhi.se
18) Irene Wåhlström, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden, irene.wahlstrom(at)smhi.se

 

Related links

Baltic Earth Science Steering Group (BESSG)
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Baltic Earth Working Groups
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International Baltic Earth Secretariat
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Baltic Earth Senior Advisory Board
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Last update of this page: 15 June 2017