Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

Thank you for a pleasant and successful Baltic Earth Workshop!

This 2-day workshop at the FMI in Helsinki was dedicated to the Baltic Earth Grand Challenge "Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region".

The overarching aim of this Baltic Earth workshop was to review our understanding of extreme events in the past, present and future and to identify research needs. A concrete goal was to gather a group of researchers who could form a community to collaborate in this field in the future.

The first day was dedicated to oral presentations which spanned a range of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region. The day was opened by Yrjö Viisanen, Research Director of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, who gave an overview over the FMI´s research activities. The presentations were of very high quality and mostly were of review character. Please find the presentations as pdf in the download section below. The poster session in the evening was introduced by short 2-slide presentations by poster authors (also in the download section below).

The second day was dedicated to working group breakout session. The participants were divided into three groups: Temperature extremes, Precipitation events, and Storm Surges/Sea level. Each group was given a template of questions as guidelines for discussion, and the outcomes were presented by the group rapporteurs in plenary, followed by an open discussion. A summary of the discussion and the notes presented by the rapporteurs can be found in the Workshop Summary below.

We would like to thank our local host Jari Haapala and the FMI for the use of this fabulous venue and a light dinner following the poster session.

Download Section

Documents

• Workshop Summary
• Workshop Announcement
• Programme and Abstract booklet (Interational Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 1)
• Updated Participant List (attendance)

Presentations can be found here
Oral Presentations

• Welcome by the Host of the Workshop and Introduction to Research and Development at FMI
  Yrjö Viisanen, Research Director, FMI
  
• Introduction to Baltic Earth and the Workshop
  Anna Rutgersson, Uppsala University, Sweden
  
• Extremes in a changing climate change
  Jouni Räisänen
  
• Changes in extreme climates of the greater Baltic Sea region since 1851: Observations
  versus simulations
  Deliang Chen, Tinghai Ou and Alexander Walther
  
• From short range forecasts to climate change projections of extreme events in the Baltic
  Sea region
  Martin Stendel
  
• Do we need a coupled modelling system when modelling extreme events?
  Anna Rutgersson and Lichuan Wu
  
• Extreme sea levels on the Finnish coast
  Kimmo Kahma
  
• Changes in severe storm and high sea-level events on the Estonian coast
  Jaak Jaagus
• Storm surge climate in the western Baltic Sea 1948-2012
  Hendrik Weidemann and Ralf Weisse, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
  
• Storm surges in the easternmost Gulf of Finland during operation of the Flood Protection Barrier of St. Petersburg
  Vladimir Ryabchenko, P.Andreev, A.Averkiev, A.Dvornikov, K.Klevanny and V.Tsepelev
  
• Does Arctic sea ice decline increase the occurrence of extreme weather conditions in midlatitudes?
  Timo Vihma
  
• Shift of extreme spring streamflow on rivers in Belarus part of the Baltic Sea basin
  Irina Partasenok and Ryhor Chekan
  
• Probabilistic seamless extreme rainfall forecasting system for lead times 1-120 hours
  Jarmo Koistinen, Harri Hohti, Janne Kauhanen, Juha Kilpinen, Pertti Nurmi, Pekka Rossi,
  Miikka Jokelainen, Mari Heinonen, Tommi Fred and Dmitri Moisseev
  
• Hybrid Approach for the Assessment of Changes of Extreme Waves at the German Baltic Sea Coast on the Basis of Regional Climate Model Data
  Norman Dreier, C. Schlamkow, P. Fröhle and D.Salecker
  
• Thunderstorm climatology of Northern Europe in 2002-2013 based on the NORDLIS
  lightning location system
  Antti Mäkelä, Sven-Erik Enno and Jussi Haapalainen

Short Poster Presentations

• The variability of western and south-western wind extremes over the Baltic Sea
  Svenja Bierstedt, Eduardo Zorita and Birgit Hünicke
  
• Evaluation of extreme water levels and their return periods near Tallinn using ensemble approach
  Maris Eelsalu, Priidik Lagemaa, Katri Pindsoo and Tarmo Soomere
• New tools to improve detailed precipitation estimates
  Erik Gregow, Elena Saltikoff and Harri Hohti
  
• Climate tolerance – a sensible way to define weather extremes
  Olavi Kärner and Piia Post
• Severe water events in the Odra River mouth area in the light of recent sea level rise
  Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska
• Nordic lightning information system: Thunderstorm climate of Northern Europe for the period 2002–2013
  Antti Mäkelä, Sven-Erik Enno and Jussi Haapalainen
• Assessment of Extreme Storm Surge Hydrographs
  Dörte Salecker and Peter Fröhle
• Numerical Weather Modelling of Extreme Events in Latvia 2012 Using WRF
  T. Sīle, J. Seņņikovs and U. Bethers
• Direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe thunderstorm event in the Baltic Sea Region
  Velle Toll and Aarne Männik
• How the city influences the precipitation extremes?
  Joanna Wibig, Piotr Piotrowski